Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 91689.513837 96692.838129 101691.051769 107055.370009 112646.103781 118297.534007 124438.572163
2025-02-02 84641.997718 92401.308602 100364.753140 109137.795667 118520.471381 128243.368042 139069.399575
2025-02-09 78940.266524 88573.175999 98672.128599 110026.817086 122414.953026 135497.709397 150335.589988
2025-02-16 73846.462478 84810.574125 96513.702547 109898.547003 124745.219220 140670.710670 159006.454248
2025-02-23 70117.544557 82183.418566 95265.593745 110449.715060 127532.603970 146101.434264 167754.098870
2025-03-02 66649.822679 79582.860850 93806.001583 110535.450182 129597.711237 150564.472072 175290.329552
2025-03-09 64409.259108 78204.011707 93569.573454 111858.419991 132933.748072 156357.580665 184255.441547
2025-03-16 61300.574077 75652.562326 91838.196291 111325.230351 134025.888803 159508.887667 190146.121119
2025-03-23 59776.049220 74852.783130 92044.440236 112953.905783 137545.219913 165393.002842 199149.603894
2025-03-30 58025.881269 73690.503215 91743.477262 113915.340373 140230.057048 170278.119533 206986.395415
2025-04-06 56030.515268 72142.636421 90905.018078 114167.065868 142020.019476 174080.080328 213539.827039
2025-04-13 54042.253221 70520.015401 89902.200709 114153.014927 143436.816614 177403.056410 219507.752335
2025-04-20 53217.847864 70315.938850 90616.803838 116232.585004 147407.114635 183821.774135 229256.877071
2025-04-27 52386.258039 70067.050730 91252.272838 118204.363574 151254.106404 190122.203887 238923.653411
2025-05-04 51072.579818 69161.118740 91036.080948 119097.001612 153768.682332 194822.300482 246691.447083
2025-05-11 49332.014729 67652.656451 90017.419029 118948.150940 154969.392064 197913.365876 252512.313122
2025-05-18 48044.207980 66674.493599 89618.848646 119533.052541 157045.692499 202052.478386 259607.602933
2025-05-25 46599.798294 65444.441854 88858.309928 119623.864390 158478.235415 205388.217195 265721.801228
2025-06-01 45834.401408 65068.407852 89157.489909 121033.844977 161548.040550 210737.739923 274328.094114
2025-06-08 44230.529419 63539.745464 87935.129571 120465.533968 162097.934066 212954.160571 279063.694616
2025-06-15 43707.646606 63424.276752 88519.635926 122201.297121 165559.040076 218794.712433 288319.075780
2025-06-22 42909.710775 62912.733954 88566.324263 123225.807052 168107.443209 223501.013333 296183.800886
2025-06-29 41834.271029 61993.472688 88050.052551 123494.029858 169670.817395 226965.784248 302503.656125